What is the Earthquake Risk in California?

A. According to the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) report, in the next 30 years (beginning in 2014), there is a:

• More than 99% chance that one or more M6.7 or greater earthquakes will strike somewhere in California
• 75% chance one or more M7.0 or greater earthquakes will strike Southern California
• 76% chance one or more M7.0 or greater earthquakes will strike Northern California

Take steps to get prepared!

A. There are thousands of known faults in California, and scientists continue to discover new ones. Since earthquakes can happen anywhere in California, damage to your home and personal property is always possible. Take steps to get prepared!

A. The state of California isn’t on any one particular fault, but rather, on thousands of known faults that crisscross the state. Scientists continue to discover new faults all the time. Take steps to get prepared!

A. Most Californians live within 30 miles of an active fault and earthquakes can strike anywhere, at any time—even on previously unknown faults. Even if your home is miles away from a fault or the epicenter of an earthquake, you could still experience damage from an earthquake. Take steps to get prepared!

A. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the Big One is a hypothetical southern California 7.8M earthquake modeled to cause 1800 deaths and cause $213 billion in economic losses.

A. You can prepare by practicing Drop, Cover, and Hold On and put into action the Seven Steps to Earthquake Safety. Talk to your insurance agent to discuss your insurance options.

A. Government assistance is not always available. First, you must qualify, and grants are often limited to urgent health and safety needs. And government loans to rebuild may be less than you need, but like your mortgage, must still be repaid.

A. When the legislature established CEA 25 years ago, it established a requirement that CEA use “best available science” for rate setting purposes.

A. Although not specifically identified by statute, we have historically relied on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) as the state-of-the-art expert regarding earthquake science.

A. Yes. In the fall of 2021, CEA established a Best Available Science Committee (BASC) to investigate recently published research, identifying elements of previous USGS reports that deserve further attention. The committee conducted 13 interviews with leading scientists and researchers, as well as with representatives of the three commercial modeling companies: CoreLogic, RMS, and AIR.<.p>

BASC has not identified any short-term or immediate modifications that should be made to CEA’s current view of risk but will be working with California Geological Survey (CGS) and USGS to enhance CEA’s participation in the development and validation of future USGS models.